Polarization and Pandering in Common-value Elections
نویسنده
چکیده
Standard election models robustly predict that candidates should adopt moderate policies, especially if they value winning o¢ ce, and that this is good for voter welfare. Empirical polarization is therefore both inexplicable and troubling. This paper shows that if voter di¤erences reect beliefs about an underlying truth variable, rather than idiosyncratic preferences, then polarization is the robust equilibrium prediction, even when the value of winning is high, as both sides claim superiority. Moderation can then be undesirable, as a spatial form of pandering to popular opinion, though the greater danger is over-extremism, which can result from overcon dence. JEL Classi cation Number D72, D82 Keywords: Voting, Elections, Ideology, Median Voter, Information Aggregation, Polarization, Jury Theorem, Public Opinion, Epistemic Democracy, Overcon dence
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